Home values are taking a hit in several key U.S. cities, and the latest Realtor.com report puts Florida squarely in the spotlight, with six of the top 10 metros posting the biggest year-over-year drops. After years of insane price surges fueled by pandemic relocations and rock-bottom rates, these markets are finally cooling off. Higher inventory, stubborn mortgage rates, and ballooning ownership costs like insurance are flipping the power back to buyers. Sellers might feel the sting, but savvy home hunters could score real deals—if they navigate the pitfalls smartly.
Breaking Down the Top 10 Declining Markets
Realtor.com dug into data from America’s 100 largest metro areas to pinpoint where median home values have slid the most over the past 12 months. Florida’s coastal and sun-soaked spots dominate, a stark reminder of how quickly boom times can bust.
Here’s the full lineup of the hardest-hit markets, complete with current median listing prices and their percentage drops:
- North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, FL: Sitting at around $478,800 median price, values plunged 8.6% year-over-year—the worst on the list. This area exploded during COVID as remote workers snapped up beachside properties, but those frenzy prices are proving unsustainable.
- Cape Coral–Fort Myers, FL: Median now about $399,900, down 7.9%. Many pandemic movers returned to offices up north, leaving a glut of homes just as rates spiked.
- Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos, TX: Median hovers near $479,000, with a 6.1% drop. The tech boomtown built like crazy to meet demand, but now supply swamps buyers sidelined by high prices.
- Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL: At $339,900 median, down 4.4%. Cash buyers are spotting motivated sellers eager to cut deals and dodge holding costs.
- Stockton–Lodi, CA: Median $586,900, also down 4.4%. California inventory shortages are easing here, releasing pent-up price pressure.
- Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach, FL: $384,000 median, minus 4.4%. Buyers can’t stomach today’s prices plus surging insurance on older condos.
- Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater, FL: $400,000 median, down 4.2%. Florida’s hottest growth markets are correcting hardest after their rapid rise.
- Jacksonville, FL: Around $389,000 median, off 3.3%. New construction floods the market with builder incentives resale can’t match.
- Denver–Aurora–Centennial, CO: $579,000 median, down 3.3%. Suburban and luxury inventory exploded, handing leverage to picky buyers.
- San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, CA: A whopping $915,000 median, dipping 3.1%. Inventory here has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels.
These declines aren’t random—they stem from markets that overheated the most, chased by higher rates and life getting more expensive.
Florida’s Brutal Correction: What Went Wrong?
Florida wasn’t just on the list; it owned it. The Sunshine State lured millions with no state income tax, warm weather, and work-from-anywhere vibes. Prices in places like Sarasota and Cape Coral doubled (or more) from 2020 to 2022. Buyers bid sight-unseen, investors flipped condos, and locals got priced out.
Fast-forward to late 2025: Inventory is up big—sometimes 50%+ from pandemic lows—while demand stalls. Why? Mortgage rates stuck above 6.5%, but the real killers are ancillary costs. Homeowners insurance has skyrocketed 40-100% in coastal zones due to hurricanes, flooding, and insurers fleeing the state. HOA fees in condos and townhomes are climbing too, often $500+ monthly. Maintenance on older roofs and storm-prone properties adds insult.
Local experts like Ron Myers from Ron Buys Florida Homes say it plain: “Pandemic highs weren’t sustainable. Now, with rates up and payments higher, demand slowed.” Buyers walk from deals when insurance quotes kill their loan approval. Result? Sellers slash prices to move inventory before costs pile up.
Bigger Picture: Correction, Not Collapse
Breathe easy—this isn’t the 2008 meltdown. Nationally, home prices are holding steady or inching up about 1-2% year-over-year. Northeast metros like Boston and Midwest spots like Minneapolis are chugging along with gains. Even in Florida, not every zip code is tanking; premium enclaves and inland areas fare better.
What’s happening is a healthy reset. Pandemic outliers (20-50% yearly jumps) are normalizing. Sales volume is perking up as rates stabilize, and builders in Austin and Jacksonville dangle rate buydowns and free closing costs. About 20% of U.S. metros see declines—the most since 2023 rate hikes—but it’s concentrated pain, not systemic failure.
Golden Opportunities for Buyers Right Now
If you’re shopping, these metros scream “buyer’s market.” More listings mean choices and bargaining chips—aim for 5-15% off ask in Florida hotspots. Cash is king for investors eyeing distressed pandemic purchases, but qualified borrowers can negotiate too.
Florida buyers, heads up: Run insurance scenarios early (tools like Policygenius help). Favor newer single-family homes over aging condos. Long-term horizons win; short-term flips risk further dips into 2026. Pre-approval locks your rate edge, and concessions like seller-paid repairs sweeten pots.
Across the list, Austin and Denver offer urban perks at softening prices, while California’s high medians still yield equity for movers.
Sellers: Time to Get Real and Strategic
Recent buyers in these spots? Equity might sting short-term, but hold if you can—markets cycle. Sellers prepping to list: Forget 2022 comps. Data shows overpriced homes sit 30-60 extra days, then drop more.
Partner with a sharp local agent for comps, staging, and pricing at or below median. Highlight upsides: New roofs (insurance bait), energy efficiency, no-flood zones. Offer flex terms—rent-backs, closing help, even minor repairs. In Florida, transparency on insurance wins trust.
Patience pays: Spring 2026 could rebound if rates dip or migration resumes.
FAQs: Answering Your Top Questions
Why are these exact metros dropping the most?
They boomed wildly post-COVID, then slammed into high rates, inventory surges, and ownership extras like insurance. Supply now beats demand.
Is all of Florida doomed?
Far from it. Coastal overbuilds hurt most; Orlando, inland gems hold value. Statewide cooling, but not crashing.
Nationwide crash on horizon?
No signs. Stable national trends, rising sales, targeted fixes in bubbly areas. Affordability improving slowly.
Buy now or wait?
Buy if ready—leverage peaks. But crunch full costs (especially FL insurance) and plan long-term.
Seller tips for survival?
Price sharp, concede smartly, market holistically. Local expertise turns “stuck” listings into quick wins.
How long will declines last?
Likely through mid-2026 in worst spots, unless rates plunge or inventory dries up. Watch monthly data.
Impact on renters/investors?
Renters: More units as owners sell. Investors: Buy low, but stress-test cap rates with high insurance.
This article is based on Realtor.com’s report:
Home Values Are Falling in These 10 Major Metros—Florida Dominates the List
